The second millennium: The Medieval Warm Period

Further evidence for Northern Hemisphere (NH) climate variability in the past 1000 years has been shown by Mann et al (2009) (1). In Fig. 1, a compilation of proxies from ice cores, dendrochronology, corals and ocean/lake sediments have been used to show the temperature anomalies against the 1961-1990 record from 1500 years BP to present. 

Fig. 1. Proxy compilation showing temperature reconstructions over the past 1500 years (Mann et al., 2009)

The red box on Fig. 1. details the timeline of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), also known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) occurring from c. 950-1250 AD. This is largely only seen in the NH as SH records are sparse.

In the MWP, Mann et al. suggest that mean temperatures were significantly higher than the 1961-1990 average and possibly higher than the 1990- present period. Indeed, multi-proxy temperature reconstruction undertaken by Goosse et al (2006) (2) confirm that European summer temperatures 1000 years ago were similar to temperatures seen in the past 25 years.

Several reasons for this warm period have been presented. A paper by Graham et al. (2011) (3) developed a global physically-based model to represent temperatures since 800 AD. In that model, changes to atmospheric circulation, including a widening of the Hadley Cell as well as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) strengthening were presented as possible reasons for the warming of the NH climate. They suggest that this may have been caused by warming to the Indian and Western Pacific Oceans which would also affect monsoon-led circulation. As Trouet et al (2009) (4) explain, such an atmospheric change would result in a net cooling of the Eastern and Central Pacific causing La Nina like conditions. This would strengthen the NAO causing enhanced tropical westerlies, push the ITCZ further North and enhance the AMOC thus increasing heat transfer to the NH (see 'Short circuiting the thermohaline circulation' post for more information).

The cause of such atmospheric circulation changes, with enhanced La Nina and NAO, may have been caused by enhanced solar irradiance, as solar irradiance cycles are accepted in the literature, coupled with lower volcanism, which eject particles high into the atmosphere to reflect and block solar energy as suggested by Mann et al. (2009).

The relaxation of these atmospheric anomalies may have swung the NH climate into the LIA, shown by the blue box on Fig. 1. Evidence for the LIA will be presented in the next post as well as further theories to explain both events.

(1) Mann et al. (2009) doi: 10.1126/science.1177303

(2) Goosse et al. (2006) doi: 10.5194/cp-2-99-2006

(3) Graham et al. (2011)  doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0914-

(4) Trouet et al. (2009 doi: 10.1126/science.1166349

Closer to home: Climate variability in the past 1000 years

As this blog enters into its final third, I will be leaving past records to focus on Northern Hemisphere climate variability over the past 1000 years. These considerably differ from the 8200 yr and Younger Dryas events since there is no dammed freshwater Lake Agassiz to cause freshwater outbursts. Therefore, it will be interesting to see the mechanisms causing abrupt climate shifts in this time period.


This post will serve as an introduction to the past 1000 years' climate. Temperature data can be seen in a 2004 paper by Keller (1). He compiles model results from 7 model runs showing temperature anomalies compared with the observed 1961-1990 average, shown in Fig 1. This graph helps to identify three established key periods within the record, the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) from 800-1200 AD, the Little Ice Age (LIA) from 1200-1800 AD and the recent anthropogenic forced warming since 1850. 

Fig. 1 Graph showing temperature variability in past 1200 years (Keller, 2004)

These three events will be discussed separately with a final post relating to the possible future of abrupt climate change. 


(1) Keller (2004) doi:10.1016/j.asr.2004.01.020

Short-Circuiting the AMOC - A poster summary of this blog

Morning All, 

As other pieces of work saw their deadlines come and go, blog posts have been light. I apologise for this but an update will come later in the week. I've developed a poster to summarise what I've done so far. It also looks at the role of the oceans in changing climate in the 21st century. Hopefully the clear poster structure and informative summary will serve as a refresher to those who haven't read my earlier posts.

Fusing the thermohaline circulation - the 8200-Year Event

Having concluded the Younger Dryas in my last post, it is time to move onto the second major abrupt cooling event within my time-series. 8400 cal yr BP, an abrupt cooling occurred before temperatures rebounded to 8000 cal yr BP. Today's post will consider the causes of the 8200-yr Event by looking at one paper in particular, a review by Barber et al (1997) (1).

Although the reasons for this abrupt change are still unknown, several papers have attributed the event to the final retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet releasing a series of outbursts from Lake Aggasiz through the Hudson Strait to the Northern Atlantic. This freshwater flux has been estimated at >10¹⁴m³ occurring c. 8470 cal yr BP. Just like in the case of the Younger Dryas, such a deposit of freshwater into the North Atlantic would prevent the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water preventing heat transfer to the high-latidudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

Evidence for this event can be found through many sources. Alley et al. (1997) (2) present a useful diagram as shown in Figure 1. Across many proxies, the 8200 year downward spike can be seen through ice accumulation, a decrease in methane, temperature and other substances. Further evidence from Klitgaard-Kristensen et al., (1998) (3) present data from marine records in the North Sea and dendrochronology in Germany which show evidence for a 2 C drop in temperature in correlation with the Greenland ice core data.

Figure 1. - Holocene climate clearly showing 8200-yr Event (2)

Today's short post has continued to explain abrupt climate events within this blog's time-series. My next post will prevent further evidence of the event found in the literature. From then on, I will look at a few less pronounced climate changes, including the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, before relating the changes in the thermohaline circulation to what could potentially occur in our future.

1. Barber et al., 1997 doi: 10.1038/22504
2. Alley et al., 1997 doi: 10.1130/0091-7613(1997)​025<0483:HCIAPW>2.3.CO;2
​3. Klitgaard-Kristensen 1998 doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1417(199803/04)13:2<165::AID-JQS365>3.0.CO;2-#